Wool demand up as global economic recovery gathers pace – Rabobank
25 January 2010
Recent spikes in demand for Merino ewes have translated into higher prices for replacement stock as producers take advantage of potential improvements in both wool prices and seasonal conditions, according to Rabobank branch manager Goulburn Michael White.
Speaking at the Great Southern Supreme Merino Show and Sale in Canberra this weekend, Mr White said the recent lift in wool prices was likely to be sustained at these comparatively higher levels in the short to medium term, according to a recently-released wool industry report from Rabobank.
"However, while prices have picked up from the three-year lows experienced in early 2009, the extent that this rise continues will be determined by the pace at which the world economy recovers and the level of competition from alternative fibres," he said.
Mr White said some short-term price fluctuations were also likely to occur. "For example, in the past week we’ve seen some softening in the high prices witnessed after the big jumps experienced in the opening weeks of the year," he said. "Looking ahead to Chinese New Year, which begins in mid February, we may also see softening of competition and prices correcting or moving sideways until China comes back into the market."
Mr White said some of the best Merino genetics in Australia were on display at the Great Southern Supreme Merino Show and Sale.
Rabobank, the world’s leading food and agribusiness bank, is a key sponsor of the event. The bank’s Goulburn branch is a regional office servicing all of South Eastern New South Wales and the ACT.
In its recently-released industry note
Wool – Getting Closer to the Right Balance, Rabobank said the discretionary nature of woollen product consumption meant wool prices would continue to be closely aligned with global economic activity.
"The premium and niche market status of wool meant that wool was one of the hardest- hit agricultural commodities when the global credit crisis first started to emerge," the report said.
"As the recovery in the global economy gathers pace – although more gradual in developed economies – we expect that the desirable nature of woollen garments will remain, this should support an improving global demand outlook for wool."
Improving global economy a turning point
The current economic outlook for world economies from the International Monetary Fund suggests that a broader improvement in economic activity will occur this year, the Rabobank report said.
"We are expecting demand to improve with the global economy and keep wool prices above 2009 levels in 2010 and that wool prices will also be underpinned by the increasing cost of alternative fibres," it said.
"Oil prices – a major cost component for intermediates of chemical synthetic fibres – are expected to remain at higher levels in 2010, keeping the pressure on production costs for these fibres."
Production to remain subdued
Wool production has been in decline for many years, as producers of wool globally switched to alternative enterprises such as the production of grain or other livestock products like meat or dairy.
However, as the production of wool has been falling the global production of synthetic fibres has been meeting additional world fibre demand.
"We expect global wool production in 2010 will rise slightly as better seasonal conditions and reduced input costs increase wool yields per sheep. However, this increase will remain constrained by competition from alternative farming practices," the report says.
"Notwithstanding any further supply and demand shocks, Rabobank expects domestic wool prices, quoted as the eastern market indicator, will remain above the five-year average (AUD8/kg clean)."
Rabobank Australia & New Zealand is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 110 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 46 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1600 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand is one of Australasia’s leading rural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 82 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.
Media contacts:
Denise Shaw
Public Relations Manager
Rabobank Australia & New Zealand
+61 2 8115 2744 or +61 439 603 525
denise.shaw@rabobank.com
Kelly Lund
Public Relations Consultant
Rabobank Australia & New Zealand
+61 2 8115 4861
kelly.lund@rabobank.com