Recovering global consumption signals positive 2010 for Australian agriculture – Rabobank 
 
 
29 January 2010

2010 is shaping up as a positive year for Australian agriculture as global economic recovery takes hold and household consumption begins to strengthen against the backdrop of restricted world supply, according to a recently-released industry report.

 

In its annual Australian Agriculture in Focus report, leading food and agribusiness bank Rabobank says improved economic conditions are seeing increasing global demand for agricultural commodities, such as dairy and sheepmeat, while the supply of many of these commodities is limited.

 

At the same time, global food commodity prices are returning to their pre-GFC trend and beginning to climb again, the report says.

 

Rabobank’s general manager Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Justin Sherrard says, after going into "freefall" more than 12 months ago during the global financial crisis, world food commodity prices are once again on the rise, driven by the same fundamental factors which had seen prices surge prior to the GFC.

 

However, while this is good news for Australian farmers and agribusinesses able to take advantage of the improved global environment, Mr Sherrard cautions that higher prices can be a mixed blessing for the agricultural industries.

 

"To benefit from higher commodity prices, farmers and agribusinesses need to manage any related increases in production and processing costs, and see higher prices passed down to consumers," he said. "In 2007, higher food commodity prices did not necessarily translate to better returns in the F&A sector because production and processing costs also increased."

 

Food commodity prices

 

Mr Sherrard says the structural and cyclical factors that drove food commodity prices higher in 2007 appear to have been tempered, but not resolved, during 2008 and 2009.

 

"At the start of 2010, these factors are reappearing and, as a result, food commodity prices look set to rise again in coming years," he says.

 

After rapidly rising to lofty levels in late 2007and early 2008, global food commodity prices plummeted during the world economic downturn. However, with the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index showing global food commodity prices again on the rise, the conclusion is that the GFC only temporarily, albeit sharply, arrested the trend to rising world food commodity prices, the Rabobank report says.

 

Factors driving food commodity price increases

 

Mr Sherrard says the main factors driving the trend back to higher food commodity prices include a return to world economic growth – with global GDP forecast to expand by 3 per cent in 2010 – along with increasing population levels, particularly in the developing Asian countries which are important markets for Australia’s F&A sector. Other major drivers include rising energy prices and investor activities in commodity markets.

 

"Rising energy prices affect food prices by increasing the demand for agricultural commodities for the production of biofuels and also because oil and natural gas are used in manufacturing farm inputs, such as fertilisers and chemicals, making farm production costs more expensive," he said.

 

"Investor activity on commodity markets contributed to price rises in 2007 and we are seeing investors starting to return to commodities now, which may push up prices again."

 

In addition, the report says, there is the potential for supply constraints on international markets if developing countries restrict trade in order to promote food security and reduce domestic food price inflation. A return to these policies could place upward pressure on global food commodity prices by dislocating trade.

 

Downward price pressures

 

While the balance looks weighted towards food commodity prices continuing to rise, there are some variables that could see downward price pressure on agricultural commodities during 2010, the Rabobank report says.

 

In the grains market, improved stock levels could limit price movements, with a record global grains harvest in 2008, followed by another large harvest in 2009, allowing global grains stocks to rebuild.

 

Also the future is not certain in relation to biofuels, Mr Sherrard says. "The use of biofuels in most countries is supported by government policies," he said. "A change in these policies could reduce biofuel demand, potentially contributing to lower price levels for grains and oilseeds."

 

Currency

 

The strong Australian currency also remains a significant concern for the agricultural sector in 2010, the report says.

 

"For agricultural exporters and producers, a downside of the relatively impressive performance of the Australian economy has been the strength of the Aussie dollar, particularly against the US dollar," it says.

 

"This is expected to continue to weigh on optimism into 2010, as the fundamentals of the Australian dollar – a strong demand for raw material commodities, principally from China, a widening in interest rate differentials and a strong risk appetite in financial markets – keep the pressure on."

 

However, the report says, by the end of 2010, US dollar fundamentals should have started to improve, pushing the Australian dollar back to a lower level.

 

Varying outlook for commodities

 

And while the outlook for Australian agriculture in 2010 is generally positive, some commodities will be better placed than others to capitalise on the improved global conditions, the Australian Agriculture in Focus report says.

 

"Dairy, sheepmeat, sugar and fibres are the sectors that appear best placed to capitalise on the positive outlook," Mr Sherrard said.

 

"For dairy, sheepmeat and sugar, this is largely a result of restricted supply. For fibres, the picture is more complex – while supply is restricted, demand is also recovering after bearing the brunt of the GFC as consumers cut down on discretionary spending. In 2010, world fibre demand is expected to respond to the business cycle and the outlook for improved economic conditions is likely to increase consumer spending."

 

However, the report says, the outlook for the beef, grains and wine sectors is not yet as positive.

 

"There is some potential for beef and grains to have a brighter second half of 2010," Mr Sherrard said. "Beef is being held back by subdued demand, in particular in Japan, and the high value of the Australian dollar. While global stocks of most grains are high, as a result of the back-to-back bumper harvests, and this has been limiting price moves."

 

While there are some positive signs for the wine sector, the report says, with a reduction in acreage and return to global economic growth lifting consumption, supply is still strong as a result of structural overcapacity in the industry.

 

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 110 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 46 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1600 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand is one of Australasia’s leading rural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 82 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.

 

Media contacts:

Denise Shaw

Public Relations Manager

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand

+61 2 8115 2744 or +61 439 603 525

kelly.lund@rabobank.com

 

Kelly Lund

Public Relations Consultant

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand

+61 2 8115 4861

denise.shaw@rabobank.com

 

Information on this page is subject to the Disclaimer