Brazil’s beef export push set to intensify competition for Australia – Rabobank

Brazil’s emergence as the world’s largest beef producer and exporter is reshaping global trade flows and intensifying competition in several of Australia’s key export markets, according to specialist agribusiness bank, Rabobank.

Speaking on a recent RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness podcast, Playing with the big boys: The Brazilian beef industry, Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said Australia’s beef sector needed to closely monitor developments in Brazil, which has become a dominant force in global beef production and trade.

Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird. 

Mr Gidley-Baird said Brazil had overtaken the United States as the world’s largest beef producer, producing approximately 11.7 million tonnes of beef annually and exporting around 3.5 million tonnes. The country’s growing export presence has been increasingly felt across markets traditionally important to Australian beef exporters.

“Over the past few years, we’ve seen Brazil increase its presence in a number of Australia’s export markets,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “Combined with changing trade dynamics involving China, the United States and Europe, it is becoming increasingly important for Australian producers and exporters to understand what is happening in the Brazilian beef sector.”

Rabobank Brazil animal protein analyst Wagner Yanaguizawa.

Also speaking on the podcast was São Paulo-based Rabobank Brazil animal protein analyst Wagner Yanaguizawa, saying Brazil’s beef industry continues to benefit from the combination of a “massive cattle herd”, productivity gains and a strong export focus. Brazil’s cattle herd reached a record 196 million head in 2023 and remains close to that level, supported by years of herd rebuilding, increased use of genetics and improving production efficiency.

“Alongside a large herd, we’re seeing ongoing gains in productivity through heavier carcase weights, improved feed conversion and greater adoption of feedlot systems,” Mr Yanaguizawa said.

Exports gather pace

Mr Yanaguizawa said while Brazil traditionally consumed around 70 per cent of its beef production domestically, that share had fallen to 61 per cent in 2025 as exports expanded to record levels. He expects export demand to continue growing faster than domestic consumption over the medium term.

“My view is external market demand should keep growing faster than local consumption,” he said. “Over the medium to long term, the domestic market share is likely to keep getting smaller.”

Mr Gidley-Baird said the contrast between the two countries’ beef industries was striking. “While Australia exports around 65 to 70 per cent of its beef production, Brazil has historically relied far more heavily on domestic consumption. However, the rapid growth in exports means Brazil is becoming an increasingly influential participant in global markets,” he said.

Adding to that competitiveness is the premium Brazilian processors are currently receiving in export markets compared with domestic sales, he said.

Mr Yanaguizawa said average domestic beef carcase values in Brazil were around 30,000 reais per tonne in 2025, compared with approximately 37,000 reais per tonne for export product.

“It’s very clear the difference,” he said. “Export margins are higher than domestic market margins, so from a strategic perspective processors are likely to keep increasing supply to export markets, even if that comes at the expense of domestic consumption.”

China quotas reshape trade

China remains the single biggest driver of Brazilian beef exports and a critical factor influencing global trade flows.

Mr Yanaguizawa said China currently accounts for around 46 per cent of Brazil’s beef exports. However, new quota restrictions have significantly reduced Brazilian shipments during the second half of 2025, creating surplus volumes that must be redirected elsewhere.

Brazil exported around 1.65 million tonnes of beef to China last year, but exports to that market are expected to fall to around 1.2 million to 1.25 million tonnes this year because of the quota restrictions.

For Australia, that could translate into greater competition in alternative destination markets.

Mr Yanaguizawa said the United States was likely to absorb some of the displaced volume, supported by a temporary duty-free quota, while the Middle East, Indonesia, Vietnam, Chile and the United Kingdom also present opportunities. However, he noted these markets would not be sufficient to fully offset reduced Chinese demand.

Japan and South Korea

The potential opening of Japan and South Korea to Brazilian beef also warrants close attention from Australian industry participants.

Mr Yanaguizawa said “Japanese and South Korean inspections of Brazilian processing plants had been completed, and final reports were pending before market access decisions could be finalised. Industry expectations are that access could be granted later this year”.

“These two markets are very important for Australia, and soon Australia may have a new competitor,” he said.

Competition set to intensify

Mr Gidley-Baird said the question for Australian exporters is how much product Brazil can redirect into other markets and what impact that will have on price competition over the coming months.

Despite expectations for lower Brazilian beef production in the second half of the year, Mr Yanaguizawa said the country’s long-term trajectory remains one of strong export growth, underpinned by scale, productivity improvements and expanding global market reach.

For Australia’s beef sector, he said, Brazil’s growing influence will remain one of the most important factors shaping global beef markets in the years ahead.

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Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 35 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.