Australian pulse exports may face “minor global headwinds” – industry outlook

Overall, US tariffs are anticipated to have a minor impact on global pulse trade, the report said.

“However,” Mr Pistoia said “the inflationary effects of these tariffs could dampen global demand for pulses, as many importing countries also have trade surpluses with the US. Additionally, proposed shipping fees could further affect pulse markets by increasing shipping costs into 2026, particularly for containers.”

Indian demand

Similar to conditions in 2023, India again seems to be facing inadequate pulse supplies to replenish its stocks and meet growing demand – placing Australia’s exporters in a favourable position, Mr Pistoia said.

“As the nation’s winter harvest advances, India has introduced global tariffs of 10 per cent on lentils and chickpeas,” he said. “Despite providing a headwind to prices compared to a zero-tariffs scenario seen throughout most of 2024, such low tariffs are a sign that imports are necessary to keep the overall supply and demand balance.”

Mr Pistoia said the silver lining for Australian exports is that the exemption on Indian duties on peas – which compete with Australian lentils and chickpeas – is expected to be short-lived. India’s duty-free imports of yellow peas will end by May 31 this year, with pigeon peas and black beans due to remain exempt until March 31, 2026.

“With the new-season Indian crops entering the system, close monitoring of international prices and domestic production will be crucial to gauge India’s demand for the second half of 2025,” he said. “One of the main reasons for the Indian government to implement import tariffs is to balance out farmgate prices and food inflation.”

RaboResearch expect to see a significant increase in Indian pulse imports in the 2024/25 financial year, driven by increased demand from a growing population and increasing per capita GDP.

Mr Pistoia said total Indian pulse imports could reach 6.7 million tonnes in 2024/25, a substantial rise of 52 per cent year-on-year. “This surge is mainly due to local production problems following dry growing conditions in previous years,” he said.

US pulses

The US plays a relatively modest role in the global pulse market compared to its significance in other grains and oilseeds markets, and compared to other countries, Mr Pistoia said.

US pulse exports are less than half of Australia's – in 2024 the US exported 1.4 million tonnes of pulses, while Australia sold 4.0 million tonnes worldwide, with minimal overlap in their export markets.

Mr Pistoia said the US relies on Canada for a significant share of its pea imports and “this could reinforce a bearish outlook as Canada looks to allocate its exports to alternative markets, thereby competing with Australian exports”.

Mr Pistoia said another potential impact on the pulse market was from proposed shipping fees to be imposed by the US. “If implemented, these fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels are expected to reshuffle vessel availability and increase costs globally, particularly for containers,” he said.

However, he said, Australia was in a better position when it came to the shipping of pulses – compared to the recent La Nina years, which delivered bumper crops. “During the 2022/2023 season, as a result of La Nina conditions and the way-above-average yields, exports were restrained by the export shipping capacity – at the time pulse exports relied much more on containers than currently. Nationally there was more exportable surplus than exporting capacity. Consequently, for the season ahead, Australia is likely to be less affected by potential increases in shipping costs compared to other countries,” he said.

China and Canada

Mr Pistoia said in early March, the Chinese government had imposed a 100 per cent tariff on various Canadian agricultural imports, including peas.

“China is Canada’s second-largest market for peas,” he said, “which are primarily used there as food ingredients, snacks and in pet food”.

In 2024, Canada exported 0.5 million tonnes of peas to China, its second-largest market for this product. This is in stark contrast with 2023, when exports totalled 1.56 million tonnes.

“The Chinese tariff may move Canadian pea exports to alternative markets, displacing other pulse exporters and potentially increasing competition, albeit limited, for Australian pulses in these markets,” Mr Pistoia said.
 

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 38 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.