“Every bite counts” – GLP-1 weight loss medicines and the future of food

The surge in usage of ‘GLP-1’-style weight loss medications is seeing a “ripple effect” begin to unfold, impacting eating patterns in a number of countries around the world, Rabobank says in recently-released research.

In the global report, Every bite counts: GLP-1s and the future of food, the agribusiness bank’s RaboResearch division says “weight loss medications mark a turning point for food consumption”.

While it’s early days and “the scale of these shifts is still evolving”, the report says, “the direction is clear – eating patterns are changing and no (food) category is immune”, with users of these medicines eating both less and differently.

“Not everyone will use GLP-1s, but the user base will grow large enough to shape mainstream (food) demand,” the report forecasts, “much like vegans, ‘flexitarians’ and well-ness-driven consumers already do.”

Adoption of weight loss medications – such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (known as GLP-1s) – is surging in the United States, with Europe, and particularly the United Kingdom, following rapidly, RaboResearch says.
 

RaboResearch Australia general manager Stefan Vogel

Australia is not far behind, says RaboResearch Australia general manager Stefan Vogel, with recent public health research* indicating total Australian GLP-1 sales increased almost 10-fold from May 2020 to reach 496,875 units in April 2025.

And uptake globally will continue to accelerate, the report predicts, as costs of the medication fall, pill forms become available (providing greater appeal to more users than the current injections) and cover by health insurers expands in several countries.

For the food sector, the implications of the growing global popularity of weight loss medication are “fundamental”, RaboResearch says, representing both disruption and opportunity for the industry.

“People will eat less and growth will hinge on creating more value per bite,” the report says, with “less but better” becoming the norm. “Category impact will vary. Snacks and indulgent staples face sharper disruption, but also stand to gain if they evolve. Dairy, fresh foods and functional beverages are better positioned to benefit.”

Global adoption

With obesity one of the “defining health challenges of our time”, RaboResearch says, over half the global population is set to be obese or overweight by 2035, based on current trends.

For decades, the report says, progress in obesity treatment had been slow and limited, but that changed with the arrival of GLP-1 medicines, such as semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro). Originally developed for diabetes treatment and now transforming into weight management, the drugs mimic natural gut hormones to reduce appetite, slow digestion and improve blood sugar control, leading to weight loss and cardiovascular benefits.

Mr Vogel said while adoption patterns differ by regions around the world, consumer surveys by RAND Survey Research Group suggest nearly 12 per cent of adults in the US have used a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, while research by KAM Insights estimates four to seven per cent of UK adults now use GLP-1s. That number, he points out, is comparable to the percentage of vegetarians in the UK (seven per cent) and ahead of the number of vegans (three per cent).

In Australia, Mr Vogel said “recent indications are that close to half a million people (or approximately two per cent of the adult population) currently use GLP-1-style medications for both medical and/or weight loss purposes”.

“While half of these sales are subsidised by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, for example to treat diabetes, it is the private sector sales targeting weight loss that are showing the largest rate of growth,” he said.

Appetite suppression and altered taste perception

The two main factors driving behavioural change among weight-loss medication users, with knock-on impacts for the food sector, were “appetite suppression” and “altered taste perception”, Mr Vogel said.

“Appetite suppression reduces overall food intake among users of weight loss medication and makes portion-controlled, nutrient-dense foods more sought after,” he said. “Altered taste perception reduces taste sensitivity and dulls cravings, shifting indulgence away from pure flavour intensity towards multi-sensory experiences where texture, aroma and visual appeal play a bigger role in delivering satisfaction.”

The report says early estimates suggest current GLP-1 usage is already reducing food and beverage consumption by one to two per cent, driven primarily by the US, where adoption is most advanced, and with Europe beginning to follow.

Mr Vogel said a large US-based study had indicated households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their grocery spending by approximately six per cent within six months of adoption of the medication.

“Purchases of calorie-dense, processed items – such as chips, sweet bakery goods and soft drinks – declined significantly, while spending on high-protein dairy products, fresh produce and nutrition bars showed modest increases,” he said.

“Users of GLP-1s are changing their eating habits and often also those of the whole household – especially cutting back on calorie-dense products containing sugar and fat and likely also on alcohol. But weight loss due to these medications also comes with muscle loss which can be somewhat countered by increased protein intake, leading to greater demand for high protein food, particularly dairy products and nutrition bars, as well as fresh produce.”

Mr Vogel said while sugar, wine and beer producers would most notably be negatively impacted by the changed food consumption patterns, studies in the US showed consumer spending on meat and eggs also fell in line with the reduction in average grocery spend seen amongst GLP-1 users.

“The winners are producers of fresh produce and high protein foods and food supplements,” he said.

Intensifying existing trends

Rather than creating new food-consumption trends though, the report says, GLP-1s are intensifying existing trends that are already shaping the market. These include: high protein, gut health and digestive comfort, hydration and nutrient density, portion control and mindful indulgence as well as avoidance of ultra-processed foods.

Mr Vogel said the demand for protein among GLP-1s users was being fuelled due to its role in satiety, metabolic health and muscle preservation.

“Yoghurts, prebiotics and probiotics are also sought for improving food tolerance and enhancing digestive wellness, which can be an issue for those taking these medications. We are also seeing a demand for functional beverages with electrolytes and fortified foods that are nutrient dense, as hydration cues can weaken among people using weight loss medication and they also need to get the most nutrition from fewer calories.”

Mr Vogel said appetite suppression was also making smaller portions more the norm, including for indulgence foods, while there was evidence of a move away from ultra-processed foods among those on GLP-1s.

*The GLP-1 RA boom: Trends in publicly subsidised and private access in Australia, 2020-2025 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339120v1.full.pdf
 

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 38 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.