Another robust harvest ahead, but prices fail to keep pace – Rabobank 2025/26 Australian winter crop forecast

Locally, the report says, the combination of a sizeable new winter crop and a large carryover crop from last season is expected to “limit upside potential for wheat prices”.

“In such a well-supplied market, Australian wheat prices have limited room to go against the global trend,” it says.

Commodities

Australia’s wheat production is forecast to be 0.6 per cent up on last season to 34.1 million tonnes, according to the report, and also up 0.6 per cent on the five-year average.

Barley production is expected to increase 14 per cent on last season, to 14.9 million tonnes, yields allowing, the report says. This would be about nine per cent above the five-year average and drive this year’s barley crop to record levels.

Mr Pistoia said with a potential record-high barley crop this season, the pace of exports will be crucial in shaping market dynamics. “Globally, barley faces structurally muted demand growth from the malt industry, driven by shifting trends in alcohol consumption, while a record-high global corn crop means the global animal feed market is also well supplied,” he said.

Domestically, Mr Pistoia said, demand for barley is anticipated to remain firm, supported by the cattle and sheep sectors, which should help to buffer the impact of an abundant global corn supply on feed grain markets.

For canola, Rabobank expects this season’s production will expand by almost 10 per cent to approximately 6.5 million tonnes (2.3 per cent above the five-year average).

Mr Pistoia said Australian canola exports (non-GM) to the EU may soften compared with last season, due to a recovery in Europe’s own production. However, he said, the EU is expected to replenish its stocks, which could potentially bring price stability into quarter two 2026.

There may also be resurgence in Chinese demand for Australian canola in 2026 following the tariffs it implemented on Canadian canola, potentially improving prospects for Australian GM canola.

For pulses, production is predicted to expand by 16 per cent year-on-year this harvest to 5.7 million tonnes, which would be an “impressive” 49 per cent above the five-year average, Mr Pistoia said.

The report says Australian chickpea production alone is likely to surpass 1.8 million tonnes. While this is down almost 20 per cent from last year’s record, it would still be the third-largest crop on record. Lentils are forecast to rise 73 per cent on last year, lupins 43 per cent and faba beans 18 per cent.

However, RaboResearch says, other key global producers, such as Canada and Russia, are also expected to have large crops and the strong global supply of pulses is weighing on prices.

States

Overall, winter crop production is forecast to increase in Western Australia and rebound in both South Australia and Victoria, where challenging drought conditions had seen production totals decline last harvest. Statewide, winter grain crops in NSW and Queensland are expected to be down on the very strong levels seen in the previous year.

Total winter crop production for Western Australia is forecast to come in at 24.6 million tonnes, up 9.5 per cent on last year’s harvest, the report says.

“This year, the season in WA behaved similarly to last year,” Mr Pistoia said, “with a late season break followed by good rainfall in most regions across the state during July and August. Temperatures were supportive to grain filling as well, with a mild first half of September and typical heat waves starting by the end of the month.”

South Australia is seeing a much-needed production recovery, with the state’s total winter grain harvest predicted to reach 8.6 million tonnes, 67 per cent above last year’s drought-impacted total, albeit two per cent below the five-year average.

Victoria’s recovery looks set to be less impressive, although RaboResearch forecasts the state’s total grain production this season to reach 8.8 million tonnes, up 19 per cent on last year’s depleted harvest.

Although down on last year’s record 3.8 million tonnes, Queensland is still set to “fill the bins” this harvest, Mr Pistoia said, with the season likely to bring a winter crop of approximately 3.5 million tonnes, which would still be one of the largest on record. This is eight per cent down on last year, but 19 per cent above the five-year average.

For New South Wales, though forecast to be 14 per cent down on last year’s total (which was the second highest on record for the state), harvest is expected to come in at a solid 17.4 million tonnes, Mr Pistoia said.

“As with last year, we have once again seen a production imbalance between the north and south of the state,” he said. “The northern half of the state has experienced average to positive growing conditions, while the southern regions faced sub-optimal soil moisture during September and early October. And these conditions are likely to be reflected in yield variance across the state.”
 

Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is a part of the international Rabobank Group, the world’s leading specialist in food and agribusiness banking. Rabobank has more than 125 years’ experience providing customised banking and finance solutions to businesses involved in all aspects of food and agribusiness. Rabobank is structured as a cooperative and operates in 38 countries, servicing the needs of more than nine million clients worldwide through a network of more than 1000 offices and branches. Rabobank Australia & New Zealand Group is one of Australasia’s leading agricultural lenders and a significant provider of business and corporate banking and financial services to the region’s food and agribusiness sector. The bank has 87 branches throughout Australia and New Zealand.